A leading economist at EY has warned that the artificial intelligence-driven productivity boom is likely to produce a «winner-takes-all» economy, in which a small number of large companies capture most of the gains while others struggle to keep pace. The caution comes as businesses across Britain and the wider global economy accelerate their adoption of AI tools, hoping to translate technological advances into measurable efficiency improvements.
The warning centres on the uneven distribution of AI's benefits. Unlike previous waves of technological change that spread gains more broadly across industries, the economics of AI appear to favour firms that already hold vast data resources, advanced digital infrastructure, and the capital needed to deploy sophisticated systems at scale. These advantages create a self-reinforcing cycle: the biggest players become more productive, generate higher profits, and reinvest in even more advanced AI capabilities, widening the gap with competitors.
For the broader economy, the implications are significant. If productivity gains are concentrated in a handful of dominant corporations, the anticipated economy-wide boost from AI may fail to materialise in the form of broadly shared wage growth or improved living standards. Instead, the economist suggests, the technology could exacerbate existing inequalities between large incumbents and smaller firms, as well as between highly skilled workers who complement AI systems and those whose roles are more easily automated.
The assessment arrives at a moment of intense debate among policymakers and business leaders about how to manage AI's economic impact. Governments in Britain and elsewhere have launched initiatives to encourage AI adoption across their economies, often framing the technology as a crucial driver of future growth and competitiveness. Yet the EY analysis points to a more complex reality, in which the benefits of adoption may flow disproportionately to a narrow segment of the corporate sector.
Labour market consequences are also a central concern. While AI is expected to boost productivity in many occupations, it also threatens to displace workers in roles that involve routine cognitive tasks. The transition could prove painful for those affected, particularly if the new jobs created by AI require skills that displaced workers do not possess. The economist's warning suggests that without deliberate policy intervention, the productivity boom could deepen rather than reduce economic divisions.
The debate over AI's economic effects is not merely academic. Central banks and finance ministries are watching closely, as sustained productivity growth is a key determinant of long-run economic prosperity and fiscal health. If the productivity gains from AI remain concentrated, the anticipated boost to tax revenues and public finances may be smaller than optimists project. Conversely, if the technology can be deployed widely across the economy, it could help address some of the structural challenges facing advanced economies, including sluggish growth and weak investment.
For business leaders, the warning underscores the strategic importance of AI adoption, not just as a tool for efficiency but as a matter of competitive survival. Firms that delay investment in AI capabilities risk being left behind as their rivals reap the benefits of lower costs, faster innovation, and better decision-making. The «winner-takes-all» dynamic described by the economist implies that the gap between AI leaders and laggards could become increasingly difficult to close over time.
The full scale of AI's economic impact remains uncertain, and forecasts vary widely. Some analysts argue that the technology is still in its early stages and that its most transformative applications have yet to emerge. Others caution that the hype surrounding AI may outstrip its actual economic potential. The EY economist's warning adds a further dimension to the debate, suggesting that even if AI delivers the productivity gains its proponents promise, the distribution of those gains will shape the economic and political consequences.