An agreement among states to award their presidential electors to the national popular vote winner has moved within striking distance of taking effect, and supporters now see a realistic path to bypassing the Electoral College by the 2028 election. The National Popular Vote compact has been enacted by 18 states and the District of Columbia, together holding 222 electoral votes. Because it needs 270 electoral votes to activate, the compact still falls short, but the gap is narrower than it has been.
Four states are central to that calculation: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. Together they carry 50 electoral votes, which would lift the compact to 272 and past the threshold. Arizona could add further votes, bringing the total to 283. In each of the four named states, Democrats control the governor's office and both legislative chambers, a political alignment that advocates view as favorable to enacting the measure.
Under the compact, the electors from participating states would be awarded to whichever presidential candidate wins the national popular vote, regardless of the outcome within those states. The Electoral College itself would remain formally in place. The activation deadline that supporters are working toward is July 20, 2028. Sponsors have been identified, and bills are expected to be introduced in the 2027 legislative sessions of the states that have not yet acted.
The compact's legal footing remains contested. Advocates argue that states control how their presidential electors are appointed under Article II of the Constitution, giving them the authority to join the agreement. Critics, including election law analyst Hans von Spakovsky, contend that the central question is whether Congress must approve the compact under the Compact Clause. If it does, a presidential veto may not block the arrangement, according to his assessment. Non-participating states could also file lawsuits, arguing that the change amounts to a constitutional alteration that requires broader consent. No court has yet ruled on these questions, and the outcome remains uncertain.
The political stakes extend beyond the compact itself. Voting patterns among Indian Americans have shifted notably. Trump won 30 percent of Indian American voters in 2024, up from 22 percent previously. A Carnegie survey found that 62 percent of Indian Americans intended to vote for the Democratic candidate in House races, compared with 19 percent for the Republican, and 63 percent favored the Democrat in Senate races against 21 percent for the Republican. Analysts tie the shift to H-1B visa restrictions and cost-of-living concerns, including a proposed $103,265 surcharge on H-1B hiring. Anti-South Asian remarks by a Republican candidate also drew criticism. The survey found that about 35 percent of Democratic-leaning voters were motivated mainly by opposition to the GOP, and nearly one in three Indian American Christians identified as Republican.
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton in the Senate race, the first Democratic Senate victory in the state since 1988. Talarico won Fort Bend County with 63 percent of the vote.