Republicans are looking back at 2006, when the party lost ground badly in the midterms under a president from its own ranks, and columnist Hugh Hewitt argues that those results are a warning sign worth taking seriously for 2026. Hewitt writes that the lesson of that year is not the only one available, however, and that several conditions today differ from those of two decades ago.
Hewitt points to a recent Washington Post polling effort in Kansas as a reason for caution about surveys this cycle. The newspaper's pollsters made 85,000 calls and sent 50,000 text messages seeking to measure support for Senator Roger Marshall, who faces Democrat Adam Hamilton. According to the figures Hewitt cites, 32% of Kansas Democrats responded to the outreach compared with only 12% of Republican voters. The Post acknowledged that these numbers gave « good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic candidates' support. » Hewitt uses that admission to argue that analysts should be careful when citing polls in 2026, since there is little reliable public data on which either party can depend.
On the economy, Hewitt draws several comparisons between October 2006 and the present. He reports that third-quarter GDP was initially put at 1.6% in October 2006, later revised up to 2%, while the current October figure stands at 3.4%. Inflation was 2.1% then and is 3.7% now. National average gas prices have risen from $2.25 a gallon to $4.20, and the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has moved from roughly 6.36% to 7.25%. Hewitt says those cost pressures weigh on Republican candidates, particularly among younger voters trying to buy a first home.
Hewitt also argues that the foreign policy backdrop is different. He frames the current conflict with Iran as a continuation of the Trump administration's response to Tehran's nuclear program, citing the strikes in 2025 known as « Operation Midnight Hammer » and what he describes as continued Iranian efforts to rebuild the program afterward. He states that 23 service members have died since February in the present conflict, a figure he sets against the more than 100 U.S. military deaths in Iraq and 10 in Afghanistan in October 2006, which contemporary reporting described as one of the deadliest months of the war. Hewitt contends that the U.S. is decisively winning the current conflict, a characterization that goes beyond what the reporting he cites establishes and reflects his own assessment.
Finally, Hewitt compares the candidate pools. He recalls Democratic Senate winners in 2006, including James Webb, a Marine veteran, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, and Jon Tester in Montana, and contrasts them with this year's Democratic nominees, whom he characterizes as more extreme, naming Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Mary Peltola in Alaska. Hewitt's column offers an argument from one commentator rather than a settled forecast, and the midterm outcome remains open.