France is confronting a fiscal squeeze that leaves little room to absorb the demands of protesters whose anger has spilled into violence across the country. The national deficit this year exceeds 5% of GDP, economic growth is under 1%, and national debt stands at 120% of GDP, according to an opinion analysis published by Fox News. The bond market is showing signs of nervousness, and the country has not balanced a budget in 50 years.
The unrest has been visible in several cities. The Louvre museum in Paris closed Monday because of a student social movement. In Limoges, rioters set fire to the town hall, destroying its tower. In Marseille, they broke into city hall and vandalized the interior. Videos circulated online appeared to show young people chasing and throwing a policewoman to the ground while shouting insults, and streets of looted stores were shown in French media, including Rue Paradis in Marseille, where high-end jewelry and fashion shops sit alongside small businesses whose owners now face torn-off shutters and empty premises.
The protesters include high-school students angry about class sizes, dilapidated schools, and access to college, as well as retirees who say state pensions are not enough to live on. All complain about the high cost of living and want more state spending. The analysis notes that mass protests are endemic to France and occur every few years when a government tries to balance the books by reforming generous public benefits. What is new this time, it argues, is the scale of the violence and the presence of foreign influence, with some participants carrying Palestinian flags or those of North African countries.
Many of France's major cities are run by socialists. Marseille's mayor, Benoit Payan, has blamed the French government for failing to protect city hall and local stores and wants Paris to pay for all the damage, which the analysis says puts the French taxpayer on the hook again. President Emmanuel Macron, now in the last year of his two terms and unable to run again, gave a speech condemning the violence on Sunday but has been notably absent as it unfolded. On Tuesday he stuck with his schedule and flew to the Gulf region.
France's presidential election is next April. Two leading contenders are Marine Le Pen of the right-wing National Rally and Jean-Luc Melenchon of the left-wing France Unbowed. Le Pen promises to lower migration and limit welfare payments to migrants, while Melenchon welcomes mass migration and opposes any reduction in benefits. Le Pen opposes illegal migration but has not campaigned on reducing the benefits bill.
The analysis also points to demographic pressures. France's fertility rate is below replacement, and the country has allowed in millions of immigrants from its former colonies. On balance, these new arrivals and their children have a lower employment rate than native French but receive the same social services. The numbers, the analysis concludes, do not work no matter how smart the president in Paris.
Policing capacity adds another constraint. France's national police handle the cities, while the gendarmes enforce the law in the countryside, both funded centrally by the state. Towns have municipal police, but they are not equipped or trained for law enforcement, let alone riot control. France has specialized riot-control units, but only so many, and the military, though probably Europe's best, is not used for internal operations.
The analysis draws a parallel with some U.S. cities, including New York and Seattle, now run by avowed socialists, with administrations in Boston and Los Angeles also closely aligned with Democratic Socialists of America values. It warns that if the U.S. does not take heed, France's present could become its future.