Brent crude oil rose to $90.55 per barrel on Friday morning, up 87 cents from the previous session and about $22.34 higher than the same time last year. The benchmark, which tracks much of the world's traded crude, has now climbed 32.75% over the past twelve months, according to market data.
The latest price represents a modest gain of 0.97% from yesterday's $89.68 close. Compared with one month ago, when oil stood at $90.29, the increase is a more restrained 0.28%. The sharp annual rise, however, underscores how geopolitical tensions and supply constraints have reshaped the energy market over the past year.
Forecasting where oil prices go next remains inherently difficult. Market movements ultimately hinge on the balance between supply and demand, but that equilibrium can shift quickly when recession fears, armed conflict, or other large-scale disruptions enter the picture. Traders also watch decisions from OPEC+ and signals from major producers, as well as policy shifts in Washington that affect future drilling activity.
For British and European consumers, the move in crude prices matters most at the petrol pump. Pump prices do not track crude oil one-for-one: they also incorporate refining costs, transportation, taxes, and the margins added by local stations. Since crude typically accounts for the majority of the per-litre cost, however, changes in the barrel price have an outsized effect on what motorists pay. When oil surges, fuel prices tend to follow upward quickly; when it retreats, the decline at the pump often lags behind, a pattern sometimes described as «rockets and feathers».
Oil's trajectory also feeds into the wider economy. Expensive crude tends to make everyday goods costlier, not just through heating and utility bills but through the logistics chain that moves products from warehouses and farms to supermarket shelves. Shipping costs rise when fuel is expensive, and those increases are frequently passed on to consumers, adding to inflationary pressure across advanced economies.
The historical record shows just how volatile the market can be. The early 1970s brought the first major oil shock when Middle East producers cut exports and imposed an embargo on the United States and others during the Yom Kippur War. Prices fell in the mid-1980s on weaker demand and the entry of more non-OPEC producers. A spike in 2008, driven by surging global demand, was followed by a collapse during the financial crisis. During the 2020 COVID lockdowns, demand evaporated so quickly that prices briefly fell below $20 a barrel.
In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve remains a tool for softening severe price shocks. Designed for energy security in emergencies such as sanctions, storm damage, or war, the reserve can provide temporary relief to consumers and keep critical parts of the economy running. It is not a long-term solution, but it can help bridge the gap during supply disruptions.
Oil and natural gas prices are also linked. A significant rise in oil can push some industries to switch to natural gas where feasible, increasing demand for that fuel and lifting its price as well. Both commodities sit at the centre of the daily energy mix, so movements in one often ripple into the other.
Analysts note that oil's path ahead depends on a web of factors: wars, recessions, OPEC decisions, and evolving energy policies. For now, the market is trading at levels that reflect persistent supply concerns, and the year-on-year gain of nearly a third suggests those concerns have not abated.