European intelligence services are warning that Russia could attempt to test NATO's resolve in the coming months, with one senior spy chief saying such a scenario is possible «in months, not years.» The assessment, reported by The Guardian, reflects growing concern in parts of Europe that Moscow may seek to probe the alliance's readiness even as its war in Ukraine continues.
Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech BIS intelligence service, said Russia could attempt a limited incursion into the territory of a NATO member state. He suggested Moscow might use a false-flag provocation or a large-scale information campaign as a pretext. His warning is among the most explicit to date from a European intelligence official.
The Czech assessment follows similar remarks from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who said Russia could use drones or missiles against NATO territory to test the alliance's preparedness. French President Emmanuel Macron has also described such warnings as justified, signaling that the concern is shared at the highest levels of European government.
Not all allies share the same sense of urgency. Intelligence services in the Baltic states have assessed the threat more cautiously. Normunds Mezviets, head of Latvia's VDD intelligence service, said he sees no signs of an imminent attack. Estonian authorities have likewise appealed for calm, suggesting that the picture across Europe is more nuanced than a single unified alarm.
NATO itself has not identified an imminent threat to any member state. A NATO official recently said Russia is intensifying attacks against Ukraine and hybrid actions in Europe, but the alliance stopped short of declaring an immediate danger. That position came after a U.S. intelligence assessment warned that President Vladimir Putin could test NATO's determination with limited actions, even while the war in Ukraine continues.
At the same time, Europe is bracing for an increase in Russian sabotage operations. The Kremlin is increasingly choosing specific targets linked to support for Ukraine, including objectives in the transport sector and the defense industry. Such actions are seen as part of a broader campaign to undermine European unity and deter further military aid to Kyiv.
The warnings highlight a central tension facing the alliance: how to deter Russian aggression without escalating a conflict that is already raging on NATO's eastern doorstep. For now, NATO's official position remains that there is no imminent threat, but the divergent assessments among member states suggest that the debate over how to read Moscow's intentions is far from settled.