Denmark's central bank has more than doubled its growth forecast for the Danish economy this year, after surging US demand for Novo Nordisk's weight loss and diabetes drugs transformed the country's pharmaceutical sector. In a special report published this week, Danmarks Nationalbank raised its 2026 GDP growth projection to 4%, up from the 1.8% it forecast in March, citing what it described as «extraordinary» growth in the pharmaceutical industry during the first half of the year.
The central bank attributed the upgrade primarily to Novo Nordisk's sales and production in the US market, following an agreement with the US administration that took effect at the turn of the year. That deal, announced by the White House last year, secured «advanced most-favored nation» pricing from the Danish drugmaker, providing lower prices for Medicare patients and TrumpRx customers while opening access to a significantly larger patient base through public health insurance schemes. A month after the pricing agreement was announced, the US Food and Drug Administration approved Novo's Wegovy pill, the first of its kind to receive the regulator's approval.
The upward revision of 2.2 percentage points reflects two factors that have already materialised, according to the Nationalbank. Growth in the first half of 2026 proved stronger than expected in March, driven both by higher-than-assumed real growth in the pharmaceutical industry and by stronger performance in the rest of the Danish economy. Revised GDP estimates also provide a firmer basis for the 2026 growth figure. The central bank now expects growth of 2.3% in 2027 and 2% in 2028, unchanged from its earlier forecast for that final year.
However, the scale of Novo's overseas production means the Danish economy is not reaping the full benefits of its success. Nationalbank Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen noted that while the Danish economy has so far defied global turmoil, with strong GDP growth expected this year and no signs of increased wage or price pressure, «a large part of the growth comes from production abroad, which only draws on Danish labour and capital to a limited extent.» The report added that securing access to millions of American consumers through the US government has eroded Denmark's terms of trade in the coming years.
Real exports of goods increased even as prices for Danish exports fell. Since the turn of the year, that decline largely stems from Novo's agreement with the US administration, which included a reduction of up to 30% in the selling price of selected weight loss and diabetes products. By contrast, prices for the remainder of Denmark's goods exports have been more stable at the beginning of the year.
The Nationalbank also flagged economic headwinds, including increased inflation expectations and uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict and elevated oil prices. Novo Nordisk is best known for its obesity and diabetes treatments, but also develops haemophilia medications and hormone replacement therapies. The pricing agreement with the US government focuses specifically on weight loss and diabetes drugs.
The report underscores how the GLP-1 drug class is reshaping economies far beyond healthcare. Employers, including Bank of America, now offer access to the medications as part of their healthcare benefits, while the drugs are altering retail, leisure and healthcare industries. For Denmark, the pharmaceutical sector's expansion has become a dominant driver of national growth, even as much of the economic benefit accrues through production and sales abroad under Danish ownership.