A veteran Democratic strategist says weak Republican candidates and poorly run campaigns could hand Democrats control of the U.S. Senate in Tuesday's midterm elections. Dan Turrentine, who served as chief of staff to Colorado Gov. Jared Polis when Polis was a member of Congress, made the assessment in an interview with Fox News Digital, saying several close Senate races are trending toward his party five days before the vote.
Turrentine pointed first to North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring. The seat has long been held by Republicans, but polls show former Gov. Roy Cooper holding a commanding lead over former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 advantage in the Senate and are widely projected to lose their narrow House majority, according to the report.
Beyond North Carolina, Turrentine listed a number of surprisingly competitive contests in swing states such as Ohio and Michigan, as well as in typically reliable Republican states including Texas, Kansas and Missouri. He credited Democratic campaigning for the shift but also blamed what he described as poor candidate quality on the Republican side. He named Ken Paxton in Texas, Cindy Hyde-Smith in Mississippi, Roger Marshall in Kansas and Darlene Graham Nordone, who is running to fill the seat of her late brother, former Sen. Lindsey Graham.
"If Republicans lose the Senate, it's likely one of those four loses," said Turrentine, who co-hosts "The Huddle" podcast with former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer. "While the president's standing is part of the problem, that last mile comes down to weak candidate quality."
Turrentine also acknowledged that Democrats' strong polling numbers may overstate their support. "Campaigns are terrified about polling," he said, adding that reaching voters is harder than ever because people no longer rely on landlines and often ignore calls from unknown numbers. He noted a run of recent elections, in 2016, 2022 and 2024, in which polls struggled to capture late-breaking shifts. Whether frustrated Trump voters will stay home, he said, or whether early Democratic turnout in Texas simply reflects high-propensity voters voting early, "nobody knows."
His confidence in a Democratic Senate takeover had been even stronger before a New York Times report this week alleging that Alaska Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola helped recruit a man named Daniel J. Sullivan to run against incumbent Republican Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan, with the aim of confusing voters. Peltola has denied any involvement in the other Sullivan's campaign. Turrentine said Peltola had led almost every poll until the report, and that Alaska may now be a tossup.
If Alaska slips from Democratic hands, Turrentine said, a majority could depend on Democrats winning Ohio, Texas and one of Michigan, Maine, Kansas or Mississippi. In Maine, he said, Democrats have long hoped to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins, and the race feels different this time but remains close. A recent CNN poll showed Collins trailing Troy Jackson 49-45, a figure the article gives as a replacement for Graham Platner.
Turrentine also described tension within the Democratic coalition between moderate candidates and a growing far-left wing, arguing that moderates cannot win without base turnout. He said party figures remain uncertain about House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is poised to become speaker if Democrats win the House. "Nobody knows where Hakeem Jeffries comes down," Turrentine said, adding that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer faces a possible primary challenge from his left.