The NFL is urging the Supreme Court to settle the question of who regulates prediction markets, arguing that states are better positioned than federal authorities to oversee sports-related contracts. The league filed a brief Thursday backing New Jersey's request for a high court decision on the governing authority for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which allow users to trade on the outcomes of future events.
The filing comes after the NFL accounted for $1.8 billion in trading volume on the first Sunday of this season alone, according to the league's brief. That figure represented more than half of the $3.3 billion in total prediction market trading volume that day. The NFL contends that without clear judicial guidance, operators will keep exploiting the gap between state and federal oversight, endangering consumers and the integrity of sports events.
At the center of the dispute is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has maintained it holds exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets. States have countered that the typically yes-or-no contracts are akin to gambling and should fall under their purview. The NFL sided with the states, writing that «the Sixth and Ninth Circuits got it right, given the current landscape.» Those appeals courts have ruled in favor of states seeking to regulate prediction markets, while the Third U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with Kalshi earlier this year.
Ohio filed a separate brief Wednesday urging the high court to side with New Jersey and preserve the power of all states to regulate prediction markets as they do casino gambling and sports betting. That filing was backed by 38 states, including Republican and Democratic attorneys general from Arkansas, California, Illinois, Missouri, New York, South Carolina and Pennsylvania. Roughly 20 states are involved in litigation over prediction markets, and a split among appeals courts makes it more likely the Supreme Court will take up the issue.
Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said the company's top priority is market integrity and pointed to partnerships with the NHL, Major League Baseball and other sports organizations. She disputed the NFL's characterization of federal enforcement, saying the CFTC is actively policing sports-related markets listed on nearly every U.S. commodities exchange. «The CFTC's ongoing rulemaking addresses many of the NFL's supposed concerns,» Diana said. A Polymarket spokesperson said the operator shares the NFL's commitment to preserving game integrity and is working toward a harmonized federal framework that would deliver more consistent oversight than a patchwork of state laws.
The NFL also questioned the CFTC's enforcement capacity. While states like Nevada and Pennsylvania have hundreds of employees overseeing their gambling industries, the commission has 543 employees whose responsibilities extend across a range of derivatives beyond event contracts. «Without adequate staff engaged in oversight and enforcement, even the best regulations cannot meaningfully ensure game integrity and consumer protection,» the league's lawyers wrote. The U.S. Government Accountability Office is investigating the CFTC's staffing level after accepting a request from Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee. A GAO spokesperson said the office is awaiting staff working on other engagements before the work begins.
CFTC spokeswoman Brooke Nethercott said the commission has engaged with the NFL on its rulemaking agenda and policy priorities. She noted that the NFL declined to sign a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC that would have allowed the league to better discuss, cooperate and exchange information to promote the integrity of prediction markets. The NFL has also urged the CFTC and prediction markets to adopt a list of prohibited wagers that pose the greatest threats to game integrity, but they have declined thus far. The league has additionally asked the commission to raise the age limit for trading on prediction markets to 21 from the current 18. Diana said Kalshi has tried to collaborate with the NFL on market integrity but has received no response.