Voters across the United States will decide control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterm elections, with Republicans defending their slim congressional majorities against a challenging political climate. President Donald Trump has predicted the GOP will hold both chambers, pledging on the campaign trail that a Republican Congress would "continue to put America first every single day" and warning that a Democratic takeover would send the country "to hell."
Republicans are working against a historical pattern, since the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats in midterm years. The GOP also faces persistent inflation, which is tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, along with Trump's increasingly negative approval ratings. Those pressures have shaped a contest that Fox News Power Rankings describe as closely balanced in several key races.
The Senate is currently split 53-47 in favor of Republicans. The final Fox News Power Rankings rate the race for Senate control a toss-up, with Democrats favored in 48 seats and Republicans ahead in 47, leaving both parties three seats short of a majority. Republicans need to hold 50 seats to keep control, since Vice President JD Vance would cast the tie-breaking vote. If Democrats win most or all of the competitive races, they could reach as many as 54 seats. If Republicans outperform expectations, the GOP could hold up to 52.
Republicans are playing defense in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, South Carolina and Texas, all rated toss-ups, as well as in Kansas, rated Lean Republican, and Ohio, rated Lean Democrat. Democrats are defending Michigan, a toss-up, and Minnesota and New Hampshire, both rated Lean Democrat.
In the House, the GOP holds a razor-thin majority, and the Power Rankings point toward Democrats retaking the chamber. A strong night for Democrats could give them as many as 240 seats in the 435-seat chamber, while a good night for Republicans could leave them with 212, six short of a majority. Even that outcome would complicate the next Speaker's task of balancing the moderate and far-left wings of the Democratic Party.
The earliest-closing districts will offer the first signals. Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who oversees the network's Power Rankings, pointed to Kentucky's 6th District, which covers Lexington and a large central area of the state. Trump won the district by 15 points in the last presidential election, but Numa said that a combination of left-leaning college voters and farmers grappling with higher costs makes it look close this cycle.
Governorships are also at stake in 36 of the 50 states, as well as in the territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S. Virgin Islands. There are currently 26 Republican and 24 Democratic governors. The Power Rankings list Alaska, Nevada and Georgia, where Republicans hold the governor's office, as toss-ups, and rate Wisconsin, which has an open seat currently held by Democrats, as a toss-up as well. Florida, Kansas and Texas are rated Lean Republican. Arizona, Michigan and Oregon, where Democrats are defending their seats, and Iowa and Ohio, where Republicans are defending open offices, are all rated Lean Democrat.
Voters will also weigh in on 145 statewide ballot measures. Referendums requiring voter identification at the polls or banning noncitizen voting appear on ballots in 11 states: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota and West Virginia. Alaska voters will also decide whether to repeal the state's ranked choice voting system, open primaries and a campaign finance disclosure rule, after approving the current system in 2020 and narrowly keeping it in 2024. Virginia voters will decide whether the right to vote should be restored to convicted felons upon release.
Two tax measures are drawing national attention. California's Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on wealth for Californians worth more than $1 billion, with most of the revenue directed to healthcare. In Washington State, a referendum would repeal a 9.9% tax on income over $1 million a year, a measure recently approved by state lawmakers. Washington currently has no personal income tax. Voters in Maryland, Missouri and Colorado will also weigh in on congressional redistricting measures, as the mid-decade redistricting fight between Democrats and Republicans is expected to continue into 2028.