Russia's automotive industry has been forced into a rapid and radical realignment since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with Chinese manufacturers replacing Western brands as the dominant force in a market that has shrunk dramatically and become increasingly isolated from global supply chains.
New car sales in Russia collapsed from 1.53 million in 2021 to just 629,922 in 2022, according to figures supplied by GlobalData, as European, American, Japanese and Korean brands — which together held 69.6 per cent of the market before the war — withdrew en masse. Renault, then the parent company of Lada-maker Avtovaz, pulled out three months after the invasion, aborting plans for a new generation of the Niva 4x4 that had been intended to use the Renault CMF-B platform and to be sold in Western Europe.
The void has been filled overwhelmingly by Chinese car makers. Their share of Russian sales has soared from just 2.5 per cent in 2019 to 54.3 per cent by 2025, with Chery, Great Wall Motor and Geely the principal beneficiaries, alongside local joint ventures such as Belgee, Tenet, Evolute and Moskvitch. Felipe Munoz, founder of Car Industry Analysis, says China's role extends well beyond simply exporting vehicles: through partnerships with Russian capital, it supplies technology, spare parts and cars in kit form for local assembly.
«It's a market that is now totally dependent on China, and in the future that is only going to become more evident,» Munoz says. «Whether through joint ventures, imports or local production, the Russian car industry is slowly becoming a satellite of China.»
Vivek Kumar, an automotive project manager at GlobalData, describes the shift as a move from one dependency to another. «It has moved from Nissan, Renault and Volkswagen to Chery and GWM,» he says. «But it has also lost some of the R&D quality that came from working with Western partnerships. If Chinese auto makers left tomorrow, the Russian automotive sector would survive, but it would be much smaller than it is now.»
Charles Hecker, an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and an expert on Russia, says the departure of foreign manufacturers left the industry in an «extremely fragile state», with supply chains collapsing and output falling sharply. He adds, however, that Moscow has recognised its technical dependency on Beijing and has been attempting to reduce it.
Lada remains the most visible survivor. Its market share has grown from around 22 per cent in 2021 to 25.6 per cent, and its Granta model — a cheap saloon, hatchback or estate — has been the best-selling car in Russia for six of the past seven years. Avtovaz claims that 99.8 per cent of its components are locally sourced, a figure that has been questioned, though analyst Svyatoslav Kuchko says the engine and transmission «remain genuinely Russian».
Munoz attributes Lada's resilience to state support and its near-monopoly of the least expensive end of the market. «Lada is still alive because of government support, because basically it's alone in those segments,» he says. He notes, however, that this position also limits its growth: «A Lada is more Russian than before, but that doesn't mean that it's better. They are popular because they are the only choice and they are the cheapest. But whenever you have more income, you just buy something else.»
Avtovaz unveiled an updated 1.8-litre version of the half-century-old Niva this year, with sales expected to begin in September. The model's enduring appeal was evident at Bramley Motor Cars in Surrey, where a 2021 Niva Luxe priced at around £20,000 sits alongside Ferraris and Rolls-Royces. Senior salesperson Jack Morgan-Jones says the boxy 4x4 attracts more attention than a 12-cylinder Ferrari. «They are utterly dependable,» he says. «It's all route-one mechanical engineering. There's very little that can go wrong.»
British buyers hoping for a new Niva will be disappointed. Ladas have not been officially sold in the UK for many years, owing to the manufacturer's failure to keep pace with advancing safety and emission regulations. Hecker sees little prospect of that changing. «I just can't see a Russian car brand being popular in Western Europe or the United States right now,» he says. «Western Europe is firmly in punishment mode on Russia right now.»