Catholics turned noticeably away from the Republican Party this year: according to exit polls, they backed Democrats in the congressional elections by a margin of 50 to 49 percent. Two years ago, the same electorate voted for Republicans by a margin of 59 to 39. The 21-point gap became one of the main outcomes of the elections, and it occurred against the backdrop of a public feud between President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV.
Catholics made up roughly one in five voters. Democrats won the national House vote by about 13 points and regained control of the Senate. The shift is especially pronounced among Latino Catholics, 65 percent of whom supported Democrats, and among Black Catholics, where the figure was 87 percent. Among Catholics under 29, 65 percent supported Democrats. Catholic women generally leaned Democratic, while white Catholics and men still more often chose Republicans. This means the split within the Catholic community ran along racial, age, and gender lines rather than being uniform.
Trump's approval among Catholics also fell: by October it stood at 30 percent, down from 47 percent previously. These figures were cited by analyst Christopher Hale in his author newsletter on the Substack platform. By his assessment, the exit poll provides preliminary data, and the final figure for Catholics could shift by a point or two, but no such adjustment would erase the large shift. These elections were the first midterms since Leo XIV was elected pope, meaning the Catholic electorate voted for the first time during the new pontificate.
The conflict between Trump and the pope had escalated over recent months. Trump called Leo XIV "weak" on crime and "terrible" on foreign policy. Vice President JD Vance warned the pontiff that he should be more careful on theological matters. House Speaker Mike Johnson, criticizing the pope, cited the doctrine of "just war," which has long underpinned Catholic teaching on the use of force. Vance himself attributed Republican losses to the war with Iran, while economist Berg blamed the state of the economy. Thus, two different explanations for the defeat were offered, and neither directly linked the outcome to the pope's position.
Trump also tied Democratic midterm victories to a stock market collapse and stated that Congress should approve major changes he wants to make to the Oval Office. Hale, in essence, argues that the clash with the pope cost Republicans dearly among Catholic voters, while official explanations for the defeat in Washington centered on war and the economy.