Democratic hopes of capturing the Senate are facing unexpected turbulence in two key states, as races in Texas and Michigan tighten amid scrutiny of the party's front-runners. With the midterm elections just three weeks away and early voting already underway in some states, recent developments suggest that what some have called a blue-wave fantasy may be running into a wall of voter skepticism.
In Texas, state Representative James Talarico, a 37-year-old Democrat, has seen his lead evaporate after an unusual absence from the campaign trail. Talarico disappeared from public view for nearly two weeks, a striking move so close to Election Day. He attributed the absence to the flu, but the gap fueled a whirlwind of rumors and raised questions about his readiness for a statewide race. A recent UMass Lowell/YouGov poll shows Talarico tied with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, with 7% of voters still undecided.
Paxton, who carries considerable political baggage and is viewed unfavorably by many voters, has nonetheless run a well-funded campaign highlighting Talarico's past statements. Ads feature Talarico saying, «I always think of myself as a Christian who hates Christianity,» and point to his vote against bans on biological men playing in women's sports. Talarico has also faced criticism for past comments on reducing meat consumption in a state proud of its cattle industry, and for expressing views on gender and God that he has since walked back. His progressive base remains loyal, but the lengthy absence has cast a cloud over his candidacy.
The Texas contest echoes the 2018 Senate race, when Democrat Beto O'Rourke generated national attention but ultimately lost to Republican Ted Cruz. Talarico, like O'Rourke, has energized young voters but faces a Republican base that remains loyal to former President Donald Trump, who is rallying support for Paxton. As Trump works to energize his base, it is difficult to see Talarico pulling out a win, especially with his poll numbers slipping.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing similar headwinds. El-Sayed, who calls himself a doctor but is not legally authorized to practice medicine, has shifted his position on Medicare-for-all, a central plank of his platform. In a 2020 podcast, he said Medicare-for-all «does away with the private insurance market.» Now his campaign website says the program «does not have to ban additional private insurance through unions or employers.» During his primary race in January, he said, «If you like your insurance from your employer or from your union, that can still be there for you.»
The reversal appears aimed at shoring up support from unions, which represent half a million members in Michigan, and at deflecting questions about the tax increases that would be needed to fund a government-run healthcare system. The nonpartisan Urban Institute estimated in 2020 that Senator Bernie Sanders' version of Medicare-for-all would cost the federal government $34 trillion over a decade, with funding likely to come from middle-class families as well as the wealthy. El-Sayed has admitted in the past that his plan would mean higher taxes.
El-Sayed is also facing scrutiny over his associations and past statements. He has refused to denounce supporters such as Hasan Piker, and he claimed on Meet the Press that neither he nor his family have ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a group designated as a terrorist organization by several countries. However, his half-sister, an assistant professor at the University of Chicago, stated on social media years ago that their family «has long been» members of the Muslim Brotherhood and that some relatives had been «jailed» because of their association with the group. El-Sayed has also been questioned about his past claims of dual citizenship with Egypt and the U.S., which he now denies. In 2016, he told a Detroit GlobeMed conference, «I carry dual citizenship, and I grew up spending most of my summers in another country,» and made the same claim on his academic resume.
With three weeks to go, both races remain fluid. Betting site Kalshi shows odds of 61% that Democrats will win control of the Senate, but the tightening polls in Texas and Michigan suggest that keeping your money in your pocket might be the safer bet. As voters learn more about the candidates, the Democratic path to a Senate majority is looking narrower than it did just weeks ago.