Congress is heading into a biennial round of leadership elections that will reshape both parties' top ranks, with the outcomes hinging on which party controls each chamber in the new Congress. House Republicans and Democrats, along with Senate Republicans and Democrats, will each choose their leaders in the coming weeks, and the full House must elect a speaker when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3.
For House Republicans, the path is straightforward if the GOP holds the majority: Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana and Majority Whip Tom Emmer of Minnesota would likely keep their current roles. A loss of the House, however, would trigger recriminations and a fierce scramble, because a party in the minority has only two top leadership positions rather than three.
That math sets up difficult questions. Would Johnson move to minority leader, and does he want the job? Would Scalise become minority leader or slide to minority whip? Where would Emmer fit? And what role might President Donald Trump play in the outcome? Whoever Trump backs as the top House Republican is widely expected to win the slot.
Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio has made clear he wants to be the top Republican in the House. He has campaigned for Republican candidates and members for months and has raised money on the party's behalf for years. Jordan, a close Trump ally with strong ties to the conservative House Freedom Caucus, lost multiple floor votes for speaker in 2023 after the House ousted Kevin McCarthy, and he has since worked to build bridges with Republicans who opposed him then. Scalise and Emmer also lost speaker bids during that period.
Some rank-and-file Republicans might prefer wholesale changes to the leadership team if the party ends up in the minority, but the outcome will come down to the musical-chairs dynamic — and at least one, and possibly several, current leaders could be left without a seat.
Democrats face a simpler picture. If they win the House, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York is widely expected to become the first Black speaker in American history, despite reservations from the Democratic Socialists of America and some possible members. Minority Whip Katherine Clark of Massachusetts would move up to majority leader, and Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar of California would likely become majority whip. If Democrats fall short, it is unclear whether the current leadership would stay in place, given the high expectations the party has set.
In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota does not wield the same political currency with Trump as Johnson does. The president has made demands about the Senate schedule and legislation, and Thune has resisted many of them. Many Senate Republicans are furious over how the president treated Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, a former GOP whip, and would erupt if Trump called for Thune's removal.
If a Senate GOP leadership opening emerges, Majority Whip John Barrasso of Wyoming is the obvious candidate. He appears closer to the president than Thune and has been careful not to criticize Trump. Other names to watch include Sens. Katie Britt of Alabama, John Kennedy of Louisiana and Rick Scott of Florida. Britt, a former Senate aide, is seen as strong on the inside game and works well with the administration, while Kennedy's folksy manner has made him a favorite on television and he spent considerable time campaigning for Republican Senate candidates.