Renewable energy is poised to overtake natural gas in installed capacity in the United States within the next year, according to newly released data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The forecast, reviewed by the SUN DAY Campaign, indicates that including new small-scale solar installations, renewables will likely surpass natural gas by summer 2027 or sooner.
The EIA data marks a significant milestone in the country's energy transition, reflecting sustained growth in solar, wind, and other renewable sources. Small-scale solar, which includes rooftop panels on homes and businesses, has been a particularly fast-growing segment, contributing to the accelerated timeline. Natural gas has long been the dominant source of installed capacity in the US, but the latest figures suggest that renewables are closing the gap at a faster pace than previously expected.
The shift carries implications for energy markets, grid planning, and policy. As renewables gain a larger share of installed capacity, operators and regulators will need to adapt to the changing composition of the power fleet. The growth also underscores the impact of falling costs for solar and wind technology, as well as federal and state incentives that have encouraged deployment.
The SUN DAY Campaign, a nonprofit organisation that advocates for sustainable energy, highlighted the EIA data as evidence of the accelerating transition away from fossil fuels. The group has long tracked renewable energy trends and has previously pointed to the declining cost of solar and wind as key drivers of adoption.
Natural gas remains a critical part of the US energy mix, particularly for electricity generation, where it has helped reduce emissions compared with coal. However, the capacity figures reflect the total potential output of installed systems, not actual generation, which can vary based on weather conditions and time of day for renewables. Despite that distinction, the expected crossover is seen as a symbolic and practical marker of the energy landscape's evolution.
The EIA's projections are subject to change based on market conditions, supply chain dynamics, and policy decisions. Still, the trend line has been consistent: renewable capacity has grown steadily over the past decade, while natural gas additions have slowed in recent years. If the forecast holds, the US will join a growing list of countries where renewables have become the largest source of installed power capacity.