Democrats hold a wide lead in the House as the midterm elections approach, while the Senate remains a toss-up, according to the latest Fox News Power Rankings. A recent House survey put Democrats 11 points ahead on the generic ballot, and the pattern is driven by independent, rural and Hispanic voters who say they are ready to back a Democrat. The fallout from the Iran conflict has become a central factor in the party's standing.
The analysis describes two distinct groups of voters. The first is frustrated with President Donald Trump and increasingly willing to reject Republican candidates. The second is wavering on Republicans but does not appear ready to hand Democrats control of the Senate. These voters, concentrated in the Midwest and a few other places, say they prefer the Democrat or Republican in their state by a point or two at most. Both groups belong to the same electorate, and the gap between them looks larger mainly because the House and Senate maps differ so sharply this year.
The president's declining approval rating and Democratic advantages on the major issues are likely to deliver the House to the party, possibly by a substantial number of seats. Those same advantages have allowed Democrats to contest Senate races that Republicans had considered out of reach, though the Senate path runs through several states Trump carried by 11 points or more. Democrats can win any of these races, but the climb becomes steep if Republicans turn out and stay loyal to their party. That is why the analysis classifies the Senate as a toss-up, with the outcome still unsettled.
The Iran conflict is the new foreign challenge for Trump and congressional Republicans. The administration's decision to begin joint U.S.-Israeli military strikes against Iran in February has cast a shadow over the GOP. The impact shows up first in the president's approval rating, which stood at 44 percent in the last survey before the war and sits at 36 percent now. The war has also handed Democrats advantages on top voter concerns. In Fox's October survey, Iran was tied to four issues that more than two-thirds of voters said worried them: inflation at 85 percent, gas prices at 83 percent, government leadership at 79 percent, and the war itself at 75 percent.
Most voters said they preferred Democrats to handle those issues, by 16 points on inflation, 12 points on gas prices, 11 points on leadership and 9 points on foreign policy. Even so, voters are not convinced the Senate should change hands. That question comes down to territory. Trump won seven of the ten battleground states in 2024, six of them by double digits, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas. Democrats do not need to win all of those states to take the Senate, but the analysis argues it is hard to see a path to 51 seats without at least two of them. Former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leads in Ohio, while the other states are close.
Turnout, polling error in either direction, or both could decide those contests, and a meaningful share of voters remain undecided. In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10 percent of voters say they have not decided whom they will support or oppose among the major candidates. In Texas, where last week's Fox News Poll showed a 49-49 tie, far fewer voters are undecided. If Democrats win only two Trump-won battlegrounds, they would need three other races where former Vice President Kamala Harris won by single digits in 2024: Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Democrats are ahead in Minnesota and New Hampshire, while Maine could go either way given Susan Collins's place on the ballot.
The latest Fox News Power Rankings feature three shifts in the Senate and 19 in the House, along with movement in a tight gubernatorial race. In the forecast, both parties sit three seats short of a majority. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans in 47, and Republicans would control the Senate with 50 seats because the vice president breaks ties. On a strong night for Democrats, the party could win most or all of the toss-ups and reach 53 seats, with other competitive states also coming into focus. A good night for Republicans would mean holding most of the states they already have, up to a ceiling of 52 seats, with a few opportunities to flip states. The results will show whether the party can keep its base engaged as the Iran war continues to weigh on the campaign.