President Donald Trump's promise to send $5,000 checks to every American if Republicans retain control of Congress is unlikely to become reality, according to Douglas Holz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office and current president of the fiscal policy think tank American Action Forum.
In an interview, Holz-Eakin said the proposal faces the same fundamental obstacle that has blocked previous cash disbursement promises from the administration: the president does not have the legal authority to issue such payments unilaterally. «The tariff checks were never that realistic because he didn't have the authority to issue the checks, and that's actually true of all of these promises,» Holz-Eakin said.
The warning comes as the Trump administration has floated multiple direct payment proposals in recent months. The latest would distribute $5,000 to every American contingent on Republican electoral success. Earlier proposals included so-called DOGE checks tied to savings from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency's layoffs and budget cuts, as well as a plan to provide $9,000 to stay-at-home mothers for childcare expenses.
Holz-Eakin was equally skeptical about the DOGE checks, noting that the department was never going to achieve the level of savings required to fund them. «The DOGE checks were never realistic because DOGE was never going to save that much money,» he said. On the stay-at-home mother proposal, he acknowledged there is a legislative route but described it as difficult to achieve.
The economist's skepticism extends beyond individual check proposals to the broader fiscal trajectory of the country. Holz-Eakin, who also served as domestic and economic policy director for Sen. John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign, said he worries the nation is heading in the wrong direction on economic and fiscal policy. «We're $41 trillion in debt. The deficit is $2 trillion every year and it's getting larger,» he said. «You can't just keep putting people on government programs. It won't add up.»
He proposed a return to what he called «old-school conservative» politics, advocating for a U-turn that would bring debt under control without raising taxes. «That sounds like an old-school conservative plan to me, but that's not what we're seeing right now,» he said.
Holz-Eakin also drew a parallel between the Trump administration's fiscal approach and that of former President Joe Biden's Democratic administration, arguing that both have left Americans facing inflation that outpaces wage growth. «I think we've seen two successive administrations get themselves in the following position: inflation is too high and wages aren't keeping up with it. Well, that's failing at the American dream,» he said.
The comments come amid a challenging economic backdrop. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years, signaling that additional increases may follow. The Federal Open Market Committee said in a post-meeting statement that «inflation remains elevated» and that the policy action «will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal.»
The rate hike puts the central bank at odds with Trump, who has publicly pushed for lower interest rates to reduce monthly borrowing costs for Americans seeking home and auto loans. Holz-Eakin expressed strong support for the Fed's independence and its inflation-fighting efforts, calling getting inflation under control the first step toward restoring economic order.
He identified several policy decisions he believes are creating headwinds for the economy, including tariffs and elevated oil prices tied to tensions with Iran. «We need to get past those battles, and let the economy just go, and that would be a better environment for the families,» he said.
Holz-Eakin's assessment suggests that despite the administration's repeated promises of direct cash payments, Americans should not expect checks in their mailboxes anytime soon. «I would be skeptical that any of these checks are gonna be in your mailbox very soon,» he said.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the president's economic promises.