Russian banks are facing a slow-motion run as depositors withdraw billions of dollars amid fears their savings could be seized, according to central bank data and interviews with former officials and business figures. In the first half of August alone, Russians pulled $3.4 billion (286.4 billion rubles) from lenders, following withdrawals of $7.3 billion in July and $4.5 billion in June.
The pace of outflows this year is on track to nearly double the $24.7 billion rate seen in 2022, when President Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. At that time, Russia was flush with cash and expected a short war. More than four years later, the conflict has become a prolonged drain on state finances, with the budget sinking into deeper deficits, the sovereign wealth fund nearly depleted, and tax hikes straining consumers already coping with high inflation.
«Drones are flying. Things are burning down. Nervousness is growing. And people's everyday wisdom may be kicking in that they need to have cash under their pillow and not somewhere in banks where it may never be returned,» a former finance official told the Washington Post, noting that banks have much of their capital tied up in loans elsewhere.
The liquidity crunch has become so severe that it threatens Russia's ability to fund its war. Taras Skvortsov, a senior executive at top retail lender Sberbank, told Russian radio that many banks do not have cash on hand to buy government bonds. The finance ministry halted bond auctions indefinitely last month amid higher borrowing costs and weak investor demand. Those auctions are the Kremlin's main source of domestic borrowing to fill its budget deficit, which reached $76 billion at the end of July.
As government funding sources dry up, ordinary Russians fear their money may be next. The leader of Russia's Communist Party told parliament recently that 130 trillion rubles held in bank accounts should be «mobilized» to address the country's economic and budget woes. Meanwhile, the finance ministry is preparing legislation that could let it gain access to $40 billion in pension savings held in privately managed funds. That follows the nationalization of businesses owned by Russian oligarchs, with $51.5 billion in assets seized for the state last year.
«If the government needs cash, Putin will just do a grab for assets. He doesn't care,» an associate of a Russian billionaire told the Post. «And that's where I think it's heading.»
Warnings about Russia's finances have been building for months. In June 2025, Russian banks raised red flags on a potential debt crisis as high interest rates weighed on borrowers' ability to pay off loans. That same month, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs warned many companies were in «a pre-default situation.» The Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a state-backed think tank, said in December that the country could face a banking crisis by October if loan troubles worsen and depositors pull out their funds.
Earlier this year, Russian officials told Putin that a financial crisis could hit by the summer amid spiraling inflation. In May, sources told the Russian newspaper Izvestia that nearly 25% of the bond market is now at risk of default as businesses that borrowed at low rates must refinance at much higher ones. The volume of debt that needs to be rolled over this year is about double last year's level, adding pressure on cash flows and raising competition for liquidity.
A European intelligence report from June said Russian lenders are vulnerable due to soaring indebtedness and deteriorating loans. The number of Russians who declared bankruptcy last year jumped by almost a third to more than 500,000. «The situation creates the illusion of a dynamic economy that, in reality, conceals an explosive situation which an economic shock, such as an ambitious package of sanctions against banks … could trigger,» the report said, according to Reuters.
The worsening state of Russia's financial sector mirrors its performance on the battlefield. New Ukrainian tactics and drones have halted Russia's advance, damaged the country's oil infrastructure, and pushed casualties above the replacement rate. Reports indicate the military is preparing to ramp up the number of men it conscripts to fill the ranks. Authorities have already been using coercive tactics to find fresh troops, and sources told the Wall Street Journal that the military is preparing plans and procedures for a wider mobilization. Because of an expected political backlash, the Kremlin may wait until after parliamentary elections next month to announce it.
An earlier mobilization in September 2022 set off a mass exodus of hundreds of thousands of men, who fled to neighboring countries like Georgia and Kazakhstan. Rumors of a new one have already sent cross-border traffic soaring, and property prices have jumped recently in Georgia and Armenia in anticipation of another exodus, real estate agents told the Journal.