President Donald Trump welcomed Chinese President Xi Jinping to Washington last week with the full pomp of a state visit, a striking shift for an administration that has spent years framing Beijing as a growing adversary. Trump spoke warmly about his relationship with the Chinese Communist Party leader as the two sides sought new areas of cooperation.
But China analysts say the summit's biggest winner was Xi, not Trump. Scott Kennedy, a China economics expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Fox News Digital that «the summit went great — for Xi Jinping.» Kennedy said the U.S. secured only small concessions: an agreement to lower tariffs on $60 billion worth of goods, purchases of specific items such as agricultural products and coal, the establishment of an AI dialogue, and alignment on major goals regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
«But Xi came away the winner because the current commercial ceasefire works mainly to Beijing's advantage,» Kennedy said. «It gives them time to continue unabated their drive for tech self-reliance, narrow the lead in various sectors, including AI, and maintain an imbalanced commercial relationship with its trading partners.»
Gordon Chang, a China analyst and author who has long advocated a harder line toward Beijing, said there is a difference between keeping communication open with a rival and granting Xi the reception he received. «I understand that you have a need for dialogue, but when you have that dialogue, you don't necessarily have to have all of the ceremony and all the legitimization,» Chang said. «We can talk to the Chinese, but we don't need to do it in the way that occurred last week.»
Chang identified the same commodity as particularly valuable to Beijing: time. «While we talk, we defer taking action,» he said. «So China got delay. And that is, I think, absolutely critical.»
The administration has gotten movement from Beijing on some long-running disputes. China has tightened controls on chemicals used to make fentanyl and, according to the White House, arrested 21 Chinese nationals in August based on information supplied by U.S. law enforcement. Trump is still pressing Xi to permanently restrict additional precursor chemicals, but the steps mark tangible progress on an issue that has bedeviled Washington for years.
Trade remains more complicated. Trump and Xi emerged from last week's talks with a new list of $30 billion in American products and $30 billion in Chinese products recommended for lower tariffs. For U.S. exporters, that could mean better access to the Chinese market for agricultural products, seafood, timber, cosmetics and medical devices. But there is a gap between the announcement and its impact. The two countries have agreed to consider favorable tariff treatment for the products — they have not yet put all of those lower tariffs into effect.
Washington is still trying to get Beijing to make good on commitments it already made. Nowhere is that more consequential than critical minerals, where China's dominance over global supply chains gives it enormous leverage over industries ranging from automobiles to weapons production. After his May summit with Xi, Trump announced that China had agreed to address U.S. concerns over shortages of rare earths and other critical minerals. Four months later, the issue remains unresolved. The White House said after last week's summit that Washington and Beijing «continue to work» on restoring adequate shipments. No new comprehensive critical-minerals agreement was announced.
«China has not been living up to its commitments on supplying those minerals,» Chang said.
The gap between Washington's warmer posture and its longstanding concerns about Beijing extends beyond trade. Ahead of Xi's visit, Trump was asked about Chinese spying and cyber activity — an issue U.S. officials have spent years describing as one of the most persistent threats from Beijing. «When they say China spies on us, I say you're right and we spy on them too,» Trump said. «They basically do what we do.»
Trump's own intelligence community describes the threat in markedly different terms. The intelligence community's 2026 Annual Threat Assessment calls China the «most active and persistent cyber threat» to U.S. government, private-sector and critical infrastructure networks. U.S. officials have accused Beijing-linked hackers of burrowing into telecommunications networks through the Salt Typhoon campaign and pre-positioning inside critical infrastructure through Volt Typhoon — activity officials have warned could give China the ability to disrupt communications and other essential services.
Trump is betting that a warmer relationship with Xi can produce results despite those enduring disputes. The question is how much Beijing's behavior has actually changed — and what Washington is willing to live with in pursuit of a more stable relationship.