Democrats hold an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot, among their strongest showings of the election cycle, a margin that historical patterns suggest could signal a major wave election. At this point in 2018, the last blue wave, Democrats led the generic ballot by roughly 7 points before gaining 41 House seats.
The president's party losing seats in midterms has been the rule in American politics, occurring in all but three elections since the Roosevelt administration. From 1934 through 2018, the president's party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats, and over the past five midterms the average net loss has been 31 House seats.
Republicans retain important advantages. Democrats remain divided ideologically and lack a message and identity beyond opposition to President Trump, while Republicans hold a considerable cash advantage that they have only just begun to deploy. The Democratic Party's average approval rating of 40% makes it nearly as unpopular as the president, and lower-propensity Republican voters could still turn out if they heed Trump's call to behave as if he were on the ballot.
Still, by most measures Democrats have the upper hand in the House and a genuine opportunity in the Senate. Recent polling shows Democratic strength in several key Senate battlegrounds, enough to put the upper chamber in play on what was supposed to be a GOP-friendly map. In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by nearly 10 points in the polling average. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow 3-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, who had led during the spring and part of the summer as Republicans emphasized El-Sayed's socialist lean, controversial statements, and his association with far-left influencer Hasan Piker. In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson holds a slight edge over Republican Sen. Susan Collins, though the race remains effectively a toss-up.
Victories in those three states alone would not give Democrats control of the Senate, which requires a net gain of four seats. The deeper problem for Republicans is that Democrats have expanded the map. In Texas, which has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, President Trump's preferred candidate, by roughly 3 points. Races in other reliably Republican states, including Iowa, South Carolina, Alaska, and even Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator in nine decades, show Democratic candidates running far more competitively than expected.
Most of these polls remain within the margin of error, and that should offer Republicans little comfort: the fact that these races are close at all reflects a national environment currently favoring Democrats. Outside North Carolina, Democratic leads are essentially ties, and polling has underestimated Republican support in several recent elections. The generic ballot also cannot be applied mechanically to individual races, particularly when the number of competitive districts has declined sharply since 2018. The Cook Political Report currently rates 21 House races as toss-ups and another 21 as leaning toward one party or the other, compared with 75 competitive races in 2018, a decline driven by redistricting and growing political polarization.
Even with those caveats, Democratic competitiveness in traditionally Republican territory is significant in its own right. It reflects voters' deep frustration with the state of the economy. In Fox News polling, nearly four times as many Americans said they were falling behind financially as said they were getting ahead, 44% to 12%. Fox also found that 55% believed Democrats would do a better job handling inflation, compared with 40% who chose Republicans. President Trump's approval rating is below 40%, another warning sign. Low presidential approval has often produced punishing midterms: in 2010, when President Barack Obama's approval stood at a still-weak 44%, Democrats lost 63 House seats and six Senate seats.
Ultimately, both history and current data favor Democrats, who are likely to win the House and have a better-than-even chance of capturing the Senate. They are competitive in states that would ordinarily be out of reach and are running strongly across the core battlegrounds. But with three weeks remaining, a Democratic sweep is far from a foregone conclusion.