With six days remaining before Election Day, the fight for control of the Senate looks like a near coin flip, and Democrats' most realistic route to the majority runs largely through states that President Donald Trump won in 2024. The final Fox News Power Rankings before the midterms shifted three races in the Democrats' direction, and the party's hopes of retaking the chamber now depend on flipping seats in what are often called Trump Country.
Republicans currently hold the Senate 53-47, but the forecast rates the race for control a toss-up. Both parties are three seats short of a majority: Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans in 47. Because Vice President JD Vance casts the tie-breaking vote, the GOP needs to hold 50 seats to keep the chamber. If Democrats win most or all of the competitive contests, they could finish with as many as 53 seats. If Republicans outperform expectations, they could hold the majority with up to 52.
The Republicans are defending their majority against historical headwinds. The party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats in midterm years, and the GOP faces a difficult political climate shaped by persistent inflation, which is tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, along with increasingly negative approval ratings for Trump. The Power Rankings also moved Ohio from toss-up to Lean Democrat, South Carolina from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
In Ohio, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging appointed Republican Sen. Jon Husted for the remaining two years of the term that Vance won in 2022. In South Carolina, Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, is running against appointed Sen. Darlene Graham in the race to succeed the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died unexpectedly in July. In Mississippi, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom in a state Trump carried by 33 points two years ago. Kansas remains Lean Republican, where Sen. Roger Marshall faces a tougher-than-expected re-election bid against Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor.
Republicans are also on defense in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas, all rated toss-ups. In Alaska, Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. In Iowa, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. In Maine, longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running against Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president. In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is in an expensive and contentious contest with Democrat James Talarico to succeed Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton ousted in a bitter Republican primary.
Republicans hope to go on offense in Michigan, the fifth toss-up state, where former Rep. Mike Rogers faces Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters. The GOP is also targeting two states rated Lean Democrat. In New Hampshire, former Sen. John E. Sununu is running against Rep. Chris Pappas to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. In Minnesota, where Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, Republican Michele Tafoya, a former NBC sportscaster, faces Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
Many voters remain undecided with less than a week to go. Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who oversees the network's Power Rankings, noted that in Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they have not decided whom they will support or whether they will support either major candidate.