Almost half of UK voters would support rejoining the European Union, and a Labour prime minister who campaigned for re-entry in a fresh referendum could see the party's vote share rise by as much as seven points, according to a new megapoll by the Messina Group.
The findings, which will bolster those in Downing Street who want to negotiate on re-entry, come as Andy Burnham's personal preference to rejoin the bloc after the next election is supported by nearly half of all voters. The poll suggests that renegotiating the UK's relationship with the EU could deliver a significant electoral dividend for Labour, potentially reshaping the party's stance on Europe.
However, the results have exposed a divide within the cabinet. Some senior figures remain wary of reopening the Brexit divides that have dominated British politics since the 2016 referendum, and are privately urging Burnham to proceed with caution. The tension between electoral opportunity and political risk is likely to shape internal Labour discussions in the months ahead.
The megapoll, conducted by the Messina Group, found that a Labour prime minister offering a fresh referendum in which he campaigned to re-enter the EU would see the party's vote share increase by up to seven percentage points. That figure is significant because it suggests that a clear pro-re-entry position could attract voters who have drifted away from Labour or who are currently undecided.
Support for re-entry is not limited to Labour voters. The finding that almost half of all voters back rejoining the EU indicates that the issue has broad public appeal, cutting across traditional party lines. This could give Labour a powerful platform if it chooses to adopt a more explicitly pro-EU stance.
Yet the caution among some cabinet ministers reflects the enduring sensitivity of Brexit as a political topic. The 2016 referendum and the years of negotiations that followed deeply divided the country and both main parties. Many senior figures fear that reopening the debate could alienate voters in Leave-supporting areas and hand ammunition to political opponents.
Burnham's personal preference to rejoin the EU after the next election is therefore not without controversy. While the polling evidence suggests that such a position could be electorally advantageous, the internal opposition means that any move towards a referendum pledge would need to be carefully managed.
The Messina Group poll is likely to intensify the debate within Labour about how far to go in advocating a closer relationship with Brussels. Those in favour of re-entry will point to the potential seven-point boost as proof that the public is ready for a fresh conversation about Europe. Those against will argue that the risks of reopening old wounds outweigh the potential gains.
For now, the findings provide ammunition for both sides. They will bolster those in Number 10 who want to negotiate on re-entry, while also giving pause to those who remember how divisive the Brexit debate proved to be. The coming months will reveal whether Labour chooses to embrace a pro-re-entry platform or continues to tread carefully around the issue.
The poll's results also raise questions about the broader political landscape. If almost half of voters want to rejoin the EU, other parties may come under pressure to clarify their own positions. The Liberal Democrats, who have long been the most pro-European of the major parties, could see their stance vindicated, while the Conservatives may face difficult questions about their handling of Brexit.
Ultimately, the megapoll suggests that the UK's relationship with the EU remains a live and potent issue. Far from being settled, the question of re-entry appears to have significant public support, and politicians of all stripes will need to decide how to respond. For Labour, the choice is whether to seize the opportunity or to heed the warnings of those who fear the consequences of reopening the Brexit divide.