A British strategic research group is warning that Russia could control or influence roughly 36% of global uranium mining capacity by 2040, a projection that looks far larger than Russia’s current domestic production share because it counts overseas assets and joint ventures.
World Nuclear Association data show that mines inside Russia produced 2,738 tonnes of uranium in 2024, about 4.5% of the world total of 60,213 tonnes. The Centre for Strategic Advantage argues that this geographic measure does not capture Moscow’s broader position. Its analysis reconstructs production according to ownership and control, including mines outside Russia in which Rosatom-linked companies participate. On that basis, CSA estimates that Russian influence was already close to one-quarter of mining capacity in 2024.
The main operating exposure is in Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium producer. Kazakhstan supplied 23,270 tonnes in 2024, around 39% of global output. Uranium One, a Rosatom company, holds interests in large Kazakh operations alongside Kazatomprom. Industry figures put Uranium One’s foreign production at 5,829 tonnes that year. That production is recorded geographically as Kazakh, but a control-based analysis assigns part of the strategic influence to the Russian state-owned nuclear group.
CSA’s 2040 figure depends on projects that are not all producing today. In Tanzania, Uranium One’s Mkuju River project is in development and launched a pilot processing facility in July 2025. In Namibia, the company is carrying out geological exploration in the Aranos Basin. In Niger, Uranium One and state uranium company TNUC signed a December 2025 memorandum covering future permits, exploration and potential mine development. The memorandum does not mean Rosatom currently controls Niger’s uranium production.
The distinction matters because the nuclear fuel chain has several separate stages. Uranium must be mined, converted, enriched and fabricated into fuel before it reaches a reactor. Western governments have focused heavily on Russian conversion and enrichment services since the invasion of Ukraine. The United States prohibited most Russian low-enriched uranium imports beginning in August 2024 and is spending billions of dollars to expand domestic capability. The European Union is also pursuing a gradual phaseout of Russian nuclear-energy inputs under REPowerEU.
Mining is harder to change quickly. New mines require geological work, permits, financing, construction and years of development. Kazakhstan’s dominant position also means changes in its commercial relationships could materially alter the outcome. Different policy and market assumptions could reduce the Russian-controlled share well below 36%, while delays in competing projects could leave the concentration higher.
The report therefore describes a vulnerability rather than an inevitable future. If projects proceed on current terms, Russia could gain leverage over a larger share of the raw material feeding civilian nuclear power. If governments, utilities and mining companies diversify ownership and development, the concentration could be lower. With nuclear generation being reconsidered in several countries as a source of firm low-carbon electricity, decisions about mine finance and partnerships made now will shape the fuel market well into the 2030s.